Honest numbers — backtested on 2,620 matches:
W/D/L 59.7% · exact score 14.1% (always-1-1 baseline
10.3%) · top-5 hit 54.4% · RPS 0.165 ·
LOCK-tier accuracy 83% on 807 picks. No model on earth gets 80% on all matches —
LOCK marks the picks that historically do.
Track record
Sample so far: 98 settled picks. Far too few to judge this model — treat every number below as a live scoreboard, not a verdict. The honest performance estimate is the backtest above (2,620 matches). A LOCK-tier claim alone needs ~30+ settled picks before it means anything.
65/98
frozen outcomes · n=98
66% — vs 33% coin-flip · 59.7% model long-run
58%
avg stated confidence
right 66% so far — too few picks (n=98) to read into the gap
17/21
lock picks
long-run ≥70% contract · needs ~30+ to judge
Known blind spot — draws: 24 of our 33 live misses were matches that ended level. The model almost never names a draw as its single most likely result (backtested draw recall 1.4%) — so a favourite that draws reads as a miss here. We are an outcome-leaning model, not a draw detector.
Exact scoreline nailed: 15/98 — for fun only. Even at its backtested best the model hits the precise score ~14% (always-1-1 baseline 10.3%): the hardest-possible metric, never a confidence signal.
RETRO (walk-forward, pre-system matches): outcomes 2/2 · exact 0/2 — counted separately, never in the headline numbers.
Match
Pred
Actual
Tier
Out
Exact (fun)
Mexico v South Africa
1-0
2-0
STRONGretro
✓
✗
South Korea v Czech Republic
1-1
2-1
TOSS-UPretro
✓
✗
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina
2-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
United States v Paraguay
1-0
4-1
LEAN
✓
✗
Haiti v Scotland
0-1
0-1
STRONG
✓
✓
Australia v Turkey
0-1
2-0
LEAN
✗
✗
Brazil v Morocco
1-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
Qatar v Switzerland
0-2
1-1
LOCK
✗
✗
Ivory Coast v Ecuador
0-0
1-0
LEAN
✗
✗
Germany v Curaçao
3-0
7-1
LOCK
✓
✗
Netherlands v Japan
1-1
2-2
LEAN
✗
✗
Sweden v Tunisia
1-1
5-1
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
0-1
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
Spain v Cape Verde
2-0
0-0
LOCK
✗
✗
Iran v New Zealand
1-0
2-2
LEAN
✗
✗
Belgium v Egypt
1-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
France v Senegal
1-0
3-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Iraq v Norway
0-1
1-4
STRONG
✓
✗
Argentina v Algeria
1-0
3-0
STRONG
✓
✗
Austria v Jordan
1-0
3-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Ghana v Panama
1-0
1-0
TOSS-UP
✗
✓
England v Croatia
1-0
4-2
STRONG
✓
✗
Portugal v DR Congo
1-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
Uzbekistan v Colombia
0-1
1-3
STRONG
✓
✗
Czech Republic v South Africa
1-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina
2-0
4-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Canada v Qatar
2-0
6-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Mexico v South Korea
1-0
1-0
LEAN
✓
✓
Brazil v Haiti
2-0
3-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Scotland v Morocco
1-1
0-1
LEAN
✓
✗
Turkey v Paraguay
1-0
0-1
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
United States v Australia
1-0
2-0
LEAN
✓
✗
Germany v Ivory Coast
1-0
2-1
LEAN
✓
✗
Ecuador v Curaçao
2-0
0-0
LOCK
✗
✗
Netherlands v Sweden
1-1
5-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Tunisia v Japan
0-1
0-4
LEAN
✓
✗
Uruguay v Cape Verde
1-0
2-2
STRONG
✗
✗
Spain v Saudi Arabia
2-0
4-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Belgium v Iran
1-0
0-0
STRONG
✗
✗
New Zealand v Egypt
0-1
1-3
LEAN
✓
✗
Norway v Senegal
1-0
3-2
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
France v Iraq
2-0
3-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Argentina v Austria
1-0
2-0
STRONG
✓
✗
Jordan v Algeria
1-1
1-2
STRONG
✓
✗
England v Ghana
2-0
0-0
LOCK
✗
✗
Panama v Croatia
0-1
0-1
STRONG
✓
✓
Portugal v Uzbekistan
1-0
5-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Colombia v DR Congo
1-0
1-0
STRONG
✓
✓
Scotland v Brazil
0-2
0-3
STRONG
✓
✗
Morocco v Haiti
2-0
4-2
LOCK
✓
✗
Canada v Switzerland
1-1
1-2
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar
1-0
3-1
LEAN
✓
✗
Mexico v Czech Republic
2-0
3-0
LOCK
✓
✗
South Africa v South Korea
0-1
1-0
STRONG
✗
✗
Curaçao v Ivory Coast
0-1
0-2
LOCK
✓
✗
Ecuador v Germany
0-1
2-1
LEAN
✗
✗
Japan v Sweden
1-1
1-1
LEAN
✗
✓
Tunisia v Netherlands
0-1
1-3
STRONG
✓
✗
United States v Turkey
1-1
2-3
STRONG
✗
✗
Paraguay v Australia
1-0
0-0
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
Norway v France
1-1
1-4
STRONG
✓
✗
Senegal v Iraq
1-0
5-0
STRONG
✓
✗
Egypt v Iran
1-0
1-1
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
New Zealand v Belgium
0-2
1-5
LOCK
✓
✗
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia
1-0
0-0
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
Uruguay v Spain
0-1
0-1
STRONG
✓
✓
Panama v England
0-2
0-2
LOCK
✓
✓
Croatia v Ghana
1-0
2-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Algeria v Austria
0-1
3-3
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
Jordan v Argentina
0-2
1-3
LOCK
✓
✗
Colombia v Portugal
0-1
0-0
TOSS-UP
✗
✗
DR Congo v Uzbekistan
0-0
3-1
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
South Africa v Canada
0-1
0-1
LEAN
✓
✓
Germany v Paraguay
1-0
1-1
STRONG
✗
✗
Netherlands v Morocco
1-1
1-1
TOSS-UP
✗
✓
Brazil v Japan
1-1
2-1
STRONG
✓
✗
France v Sweden
2-1
3-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Ivory Coast v Norway
0-1
1-2
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Mexico v Ecuador
0-0
2-0
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
England v DR Congo
1-0
2-1
STRONG
✓
✗
United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina
2-0
2-0
LOCK
✓
✓
Belgium v Senegal
1-1
3-2
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Portugal v Croatia
1-1
2-1
LEAN
✓
✗
Spain v Austria
1-0
3-0
LOCK
✓
✗
Switzerland v Algeria
1-1
2-0
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Argentina v Cape Verde
2-0
3-2
LOCK
✓
✗
Colombia v Ghana
1-0
1-0
STRONG
✓
✓
Australia v Egypt
1-1
1-1
TOSS-UP
✗
✓
Paraguay v France
0-1
0-1
LOCK
✓
✓
Canada v Morocco
0-1
0-3
LEAN
✓
✗
Brazil v Norway
1-1
1-2
LEAN
✗
✗
Mexico v England
0-1
2-3
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Portugal v Spain
0-1
0-1
LEAN
✓
✓
United States v Belgium
1-1
1-4
TOSS-UP
✓
✗
Argentina v Egypt
1-0
3-2
STRONG
✓
✗
Switzerland v Colombia
1-1
0-0
LEAN
✗
✗
France v Morocco
1-0
2-0
STRONG
✓
✗
Spain v Belgium
1-1
2-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Norway v England
1-1
1-2
STRONG
✓
✗
Argentina v Switzerland
1-1
3-1
STRONG
✓
✗
Upcoming · next 7 days
Jul 15 · 03:00 MYT · Group nanTOSS-UP
France
ELO 2238 ↑118
●●●●●
1–1
France win · 36%
Spain
ELO 2262 ↑37
●●●●●
W 36%
D 28%
L 36%
12 · France or Spain (no draw) · 72%U2.5 54%1-0 11%2-1 9%0-0 9%0-1 8%
Mexico v South Africa 
South Korea v Czech Republic 
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina 
United States v Paraguay 
Haiti v Scotland 
Australia v Turkey 
Brazil v Morocco 
Qatar v Switzerland 
Ivory Coast v Ecuador 
Germany v Curaçao 
Netherlands v Japan 
Sweden v Tunisia 
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 
Spain v Cape Verde 
Iran v New Zealand 
Belgium v Egypt 
France v Senegal 
Iraq v Norway 
Argentina v Algeria 
Austria v Jordan 
Ghana v Panama 
England v Croatia 
Portugal v DR Congo 
Uzbekistan v Colombia 
