WC26·Predictor

machine-learned scorelines · 49,000 internationals · generated 2026-06-18 05:01 MYT
Honest numbers — backtested on 2,546 matches: W/D/L 59.7% · exact score 14.2% (always-1-1 baseline 10.1%) · top-5 hit 54.6% · RPS 0.165 · LOCK-tier accuracy 83% on 792 picks. No model on earth gets 80% on all matches — LOCK marks the picks that historically do.

Track record

Sample so far: 19 settled picks. Far too few to judge this model — treat every number below as a live scoreboard, not a verdict. The honest performance estimate is the backtest above (2,546 matches). A LOCK-tier claim alone needs ~30+ settled picks before it means anything.
8/19
frozen outcomes · n=19
42% — vs 33% coin-flip · 59.7% model long-run
60%
avg stated confidence
right 42% so far — too few picks (n=19) to read into the gap
1/3
lock picks
long-run ≥70% contract · needs ~30+ to judge
Known blind spot — draws: 9 of our 11 live misses were matches that ended level. The model almost never names a draw as its single most likely result (backtested draw recall 1.5%) — so a favourite that draws reads as a miss here. We are an outcome-leaning model, not a draw detector.
Exact scoreline nailed: 1/19 — for fun only. Even at its backtested best the model hits the precise score ~14% (always-1-1 baseline 10.1%): the hardest-possible metric, never a confidence signal.
RETRO (walk-forward, pre-system matches): outcomes 2/2 · exact 0/2 — counted separately, never in the headline numbers.
MatchPredActualTierOutExact (fun)
Mexico v South Africa 1-02-0STRONGretro✓✗
South Korea v Czech Republic 1-12-1TOSS-UPretro✓✗
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-01-1STRONG✗✗
United States v Paraguay 1-04-1LEAN✓✗
Haiti v Scotland 0-10-1STRONG✓✓
Australia v Turkey 0-12-0LEAN✗✗
Brazil v Morocco 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
Qatar v Switzerland 0-21-1LOCK✗✗
Ivory Coast v Ecuador 0-01-0LEAN✗✗
Germany v Curaçao 3-07-1LOCK✓✗
Netherlands v Japan 1-12-2LEAN✗✗
Sweden v Tunisia 1-15-1TOSS-UP✓✗
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 0-11-1STRONG✗✗
Spain v Cape Verde 2-00-0LOCK✗✗
Iran v New Zealand 1-02-2LEAN✗✗
Belgium v Egypt 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
France v Senegal 1-03-1STRONG✓✗
Iraq v Norway 0-11-4STRONG✓✗
Argentina v Algeria 1-03-0STRONG✓✗
Austria v Jordan 1-03-1STRONG✓✗
Portugal v DR Congo 1-01-1STRONG✗✗

Upcoming · next 7 days

Jun 18 · 04:00 MYT · Group L STRONG
England
ELO 2096 ↑43
●●●●●
1–0
England win · 57%
Croatia
ELO 1974 ↓13
●●●●●
W 57%
D 26%
L 17%
1X · England or draw · 83%U2.5 55%1-1 12%2-0 11%0-0 9%2-1 9%
★ Harry Kane · Ivan ToneyvsPetar Musa · Ivan Perišić
● market-blended
Jun 18 · 07:00 MYT · Group L TOSS-UP
Ghana
ELO 1628 ↑27
●●●●●
1–1
Ghana win · 36%
Panama
ELO 1857 ↓6
●●●●●
W 36%
D 29%
L 35%
12 · Ghana or Panama (no draw) · 71%U2.5 55%1-0 12%0-0 9%2-1 9%0-1 9%
★ Antoine Semenyo · Christopher Bonsu-BaahvsIsmael Díaz · José Luis Rodríguez
● market-blended
Jun 18 · 10:00 MYT · Group K STRONG
Uzbekistan
ELO 1824 →0
●●●●●
0–1
Colombia win · 67%
Colombia
ELO 2068 ↑36
●●●●●
11%
D 22%
L 67%
X2 · Colombia or draw · 89%U2.5 59%0-2 15%1-2 10%1-1 10%0-0 9%
★ Abdukodir KhusanovvsLuis Suárez · Luis Díaz
● market-blended
Jun 19 · 00:00 MYT · Group A LEAN
Czech Republic
ELO 1784 ↓26
●●●●●
1–1
Czech Republic win · 54%
South Africa
ELO 1658 ↓20
●●●●●
W 54%
D 25%
L 21%
1X · Czech Republic or draw · 79%O2.5 52%1-0 11%2-1 10%2-0 9%0-0 7%
★ Patrik Schick · Pavel ŠulcvsLyle Foster · Bongokuhle Hlongwane
● market-blended
Jun 19 · 03:00 MYT · Group B STRONG
Switzerland
ELO 1937 ↑21
●●●●●
1–0
Switzerland win · 63%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
ELO 1680 ↑98
●●●●●
W 63%
D 23%
L 14%
1X · Switzerland or draw · 86%U2.5 52%2-0 12%1-1 11%2-1 9%3-0 8%
★ Breel Embolo · Johan ManzambivsHaris Tabaković · Ermedin Demirović
● market-blended
Jun 19 · 06:00 MYT · Group B STRONG
Canada
ELO 1880 ↓30
●●●●●
1–0
Canada win · 70%
Qatar
ELO 1594 ↓57
●●●●●
W 70%
D 20%
10%
1X · Canada or draw · 90%U2.5 51%2-0 14%2-1 10%1-1 9%3-0 8%
★ Tani Oluwaseyi · Jonathan Davidvs
● market-blended
Jun 19 · 09:00 MYT · Group A LEAN
Mexico
ELO 1991 ↑55
●●●●●
1–1
Mexico win · 50%
South Korea
ELO 1908 ↑19
●●●●●
W 50%
D 29%
L 21%
1X · Mexico or draw · 79%U2.5 57%1-0 13%2-0 10%0-0 10%2-1 9%
★ Julián Quiñones · Armando GonzálezvsLee Hyunju · Lee Kang-in
● market-blended
Jun 20 · 03:00 MYT · Group D LEAN
United States
ELO 1882 ↑56
●●●●●
1–0
United States win · 55%
Australia
ELO 1959 ↑67
●●●●●
W 55%
D 24%
L 21%
1X · United States or draw · 79%O2.5 52%1-1 11%2-1 11%2-0 10%0-0 6%
★ Djordje Mihailovic · Milan IloskivsJordy Bos · Ajdin Hrustic
● market-blended
Jun 20 · 06:00 MYT · Group C LEAN
Scotland
ELO 1868 ↑90
●●●●●
0–1
Morocco win · 54%
Morocco
ELO 1995 ↑82
●●●●●
W 20%
D 26%
L 54%
X2 · Morocco or draw · 80%U2.5 53%1-1 12%0-2 10%1-2 10%0-0 8%
★ Scott McTominay · John McGinnvsIsmael Saibari · Abde Ezzalzouli
● market-blended
Jun 20 · 09:00 MYT · Group C LOCK
Brazil
ELO 2066 ↓15
●●●●●
3–0
Brazil win · 89%
Haiti
ELO 1692 ↑47
●●●●●
W 89%
7%
1X · Brazil or draw · 96%O2.5 79%4-0 10%2-0 9%5-0 8%3-1 6%
★ Evander · Kaio JorgevsDanley Jean-Jacques · Wilson Isidor
● market-blended
Jun 20 · 12:00 MYT · Group D LEAN
Turkey
ELO 1921 ↑22
●●●●●
1–0
Turkey win · 46%
Paraguay
ELO 1871 ↓34
●●●●●
W 46%
D 29%
L 25%
1X · Turkey or draw · 75%U2.5 60%1-1 13%0-0 11%2-0 9%0-1 9%
★ Kenan Yıldız · Basar OnalvsRobert Morales · Diego González
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 01:00 MYT · Group F STRONG
Netherlands
ELO 2014 ↓26
●●●●●
1–1
Netherlands win · 56%
Sweden
ELO 1826 →0
●●●●●
W 56%
D 26%
L 18%
1X · Netherlands or draw · 82%O2.5 56%2-1 10%1-0 10%2-0 9%3-1 6%
★ Joey Veerman · Georginio WijnaldumvsEmil Forsberg · Viktor Gyökeres
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 04:00 MYT · Group E STRONG
Germany
ELO 2021 ↑28
●●●●●
2–1
Germany win · 57%
Ivory Coast
ELO 1864 ↑153
●●●●●
W 57%
D 23%
L 20%
1X · Germany or draw · 80%O2.5 57%1-1 11%1-0 11%2-0 9%3-1 6%
★ Deniz Undav · Hany MukhtarvsYan Diomandé · Nicolas Pépé
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 08:00 MYT · Group E LOCK
Ecuador
ELO 1985 ↓8
●●●●●
2–0
Ecuador win · 84%
Curaçao
ELO 1597 →0
●●●●●
W 84%
11%
1X · Ecuador or draw · 95%O2.5 62%1-0 12%3-0 12%2-1 9%3-1 8%
★ Pedro Vite · Leonardo CampanavsBrandley Kuwas · Tyrese Noslin
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 12:00 MYT · Group F STRONG
Tunisia
ELO 1690 ↓44
●●●●●
0–1
Japan win · 60%
Japan
ELO 1999 ↑33
●●●●●
W 15%
D 25%
L 60%
X2 · Japan or draw · 85%U2.5 59%0-2 13%1-1 12%1-2 10%0-0 10%
★ Rani Khedira · Hannibal MejbrivsAyase Ueda · Kodai Sano
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 00:00 MYT · Group H LOCK
Spain
ELO 2196 ↓28
●●●●●
1–0
Spain win · 84%
Saudi Arabia
ELO 1716 →0
●●●●●
W 84%
11%
1X · Spain or draw · 95%U2.5 51%2-0 19%3-0 13%2-1 9%4-0 6%
★ Lamine Yamal · Pep BielvsKhalid Al Ghannam · Musab Al Juwayr
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 03:00 MYT · Group G STRONG
Belgium
ELO 1950 ↑40
●●●●●
1–0
Belgium win · 63%
Iran
ELO 1887 ↓15
●●●●●
W 63%
D 22%
L 15%
1X · Belgium or draw · 85%O2.5 53%2-1 12%2-0 11%1-1 10%3-1 7%
★ Mika Godts · Yannick Carrascovs
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 06:00 MYT · Group H STRONG
Uruguay
ELO 1959 ↓26
●●●●●
1–0
Uruguay win · 66%
Cape Verde
ELO 1684 ↑48
●●●●●
W 66%
D 22%
12%
1X · Uruguay or draw · 88%U2.5 56%2-0 14%1-1 10%0-0 9%3-0 9%
★ Giorgian De Arrascaeta · Luis SuárezvsSidny Lopes Cabral · Jovane Cabral
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 09:00 MYT · Group G LEAN
New Zealand
ELO 1748 ↓64
●●●●●
0–1
Egypt win · 55%
Egypt
ELO 1825 ↑45
●●●●●
W 20%
D 25%
L 55%
X2 · Egypt or draw · 80%U2.5 56%1-1 12%1-2 10%0-2 10%0-0 9%
★ Chris Wood · Michael BoxallvsMohamed Salah · Mostafa Mohamed
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 01:00 MYT · Group J STRONG
Argentina
ELO 2209 →0
●●●●●
1–0
Argentina win · 61%
Austria
ELO 1926 ↑20
●●●●●
W 61%
D 24%
L 14%
1X · Argentina or draw · 86%U2.5 54%2-0 13%1-1 11%2-1 9%0-0 9%
★ Lionel Messi · Ángel CorreavsChristoph Baumgartner · Hannes Wolf
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 05:00 MYT · Group I LOCK
France
ELO 2150 ↑30
●●●●●
2–0
France win · 85%
Iraq
ELO 1720 ↑32
●●●●●
W 85%
11%
1X · France or draw · 95%O2.5 58%1-0 15%3-0 12%2-1 10%3-1 8%
★ Michael Olise · Esteban LepaulvsAli Jasim · Ahmed Qasem
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 08:00 MYT · Group I TOSS-UP
Norway
ELO 1998 ↑76
●●●●●
1–1
Norway win · 39%
Senegal
ELO 1896 →0
●●●●●
W 39%
D 28%
L 33%
12 · Norway or Senegal (no draw) · 72%U2.5 56%1-0 12%0-1 9%0-0 9%2-1 9%
★ Erling Haaland · Joshua KingvsSadio Mané · Issa Soumaré
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 11:00 MYT · Group J STRONG
Jordan
ELO 1748 →0
●●●●●
1–1
Algeria win · 58%
Algeria
ELO 1872 ↑57
●●●●●
W 16%
D 25%
L 58%
X2 · Algeria or draw · 84%O2.5 54%0-1 11%1-2 11%0-2 10%1-3 6%
★ Musa Al-TaamarivsAnis Hadj Moussa · Saïd Benrahma
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 01:00 MYT · Group K LOCK
Portugal
ELO 2051 ↓34
●●●●●
1–0
Portugal win · 76%
Uzbekistan
ELO 1824 →0
●●●●●
W 76%
D 16%
9%
1X · Portugal or draw · 91%O2.5 54%2-0 14%2-1 11%3-0 10%1-1 7%
★ João Félix · Bruno FernandesvsAbdukodir Khusanov
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 04:00 MYT · Group L LOCK
England
ELO 2096 ↑43
●●●●●
2–0
England win · 75%
Ghana
ELO 1628 ↑27
●●●●●
W 75%
D 17%
8%
1X · England or draw · 92%U2.5 55%1-0 17%3-0 12%0-0 8%1-1 7%
★ Harry Kane · Ivan ToneyvsAntoine Semenyo · Christopher Bonsu-Baah
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 07:00 MYT · Group L STRONG
Panama
ELO 1857 ↓18
●●●●●
0–1
Croatia win · 60%
Croatia
ELO 1974 ↓13
●●●●●
W 15%
D 25%
L 60%
X2 · Croatia or draw · 85%U2.5 50%1-1 12%0-2 11%1-2 10%0-0 7%
★ Ismael Díaz · José Luis RodríguezvsPetar Musa · Ivan Perišić
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 10:00 MYT · Group K STRONG
Colombia
ELO 2068 ↑36
●●●●●
1–0
Colombia win · 63%
DR Congo
ELO 1766 ↑65
●●●●●
W 63%
D 24%
13%
1X · Colombia or draw · 87%U2.5 58%2-0 14%1-1 11%0-0 10%2-1 9%
★ Luis Suárez · Luis DíazvsAaron Wan-Bissaka · Noah Sadiki
● market-blended
Jun 25 · 03:00 MYT · Group B TOSS-UP
Canada
ELO 1880 ↓20
●●●●●
1–1
Canada win · 39%
Switzerland
ELO 1937 ↑21
●●●●●
W 39%
D 27%
L 33%
12 · Canada or Switzerland (no draw) · 73%U2.5 56%1-0 11%0-1 10%0-0 9%2-1 8%
★ Tani Oluwaseyi · Jonathan DavidvsBreel Embolo · Johan Manzambi
Jun 25 · 03:00 MYT · Group B LEAN
Bosnia and Herzegovina
ELO 1680 ↑98
●●●●●
1–0
Bosnia and Herzegovina win · 54%
Qatar
ELO 1594 ↓57
●●●●●
W 54%
D 25%
L 21%
1X · Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw · 79%U2.5 51%1-1 12%2-1 11%2-0 9%0-0 7%
★ Haris Tabaković · Ermedin Demirovićvs
● market-blended

Groups · advance odds

Group A

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Mexico100+23 99%
South Korea100+13 96%
Czech Republic001-10 50%
South Africa001-20 20%

Group B

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Canada010+01 87%
Bosnia and Herzegovina010+01 65%
Qatar010+01 34%
Switzerland010+01 81%

Group C

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Scotland100+13 80%
Morocco010+01 92%
Brazil010+01 97%
Haiti001-10 5%

Group D

teamWDLGDpts·adv
United States100+33 99%
Australia100+23 93%
Turkey001-20 41%
Paraguay001-30 32%

Group E

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Germany100+63 100%
Ivory Coast100+13 98%
Ecuador001-10 81%
Curaçao001-60 2%

Group F

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Sweden100+43 95%
Japan010+01 86%
Netherlands010+01 90%
Tunisia001-40 11%

Group G

teamWDLGDpts·adv
New Zealand010+01 31%
Iran010+01 48%
Belgium010+01 93%
Egypt010+01 80%

Group H

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Saudi Arabia010+01 44%
Uruguay010+01 77%
Spain010+01 96%
Cape Verde010+01 46%

Group I

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Norway100+33 97%
France100+23 100%
Senegal001-20 67%
Iraq001-30 5%

Group J

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Argentina100+33 100%
Austria100+23 93%
Jordan001-20 10%
Algeria001-30 56%

Group K

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Portugal010+01 90%
DR Congo010+01 53%
Colombia000+00 90%
Uzbekistan000+00 33%

Group L

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Ghana000+00 39%
Panama000+00 38%
England000+00 97%
Croatia000+00 84%

Champion odds · 10,000 simulations

Argentina
25.0%
Spain
12.7%
England
11.4%
France
8.5%
Brazil
7.0%
Colombia
5.6%
Portugal
5.5%
Belgium
3.2%
Morocco
2.9%
Germany
2.7%
Netherlands
2.2%
Japan
1.9%