WC26·Predictor

machine-learned scorelines · 49,000 internationals · generated 2026-06-21 02:01 MYT
Honest numbers — backtested on 2,546 matches: W/D/L 59.7% · exact score 14.2% (always-1-1 baseline 10.1%) · top-5 hit 54.6% · RPS 0.165 · LOCK-tier accuracy 83% on 792 picks. No model on earth gets 80% on all matches — LOCK marks the picks that historically do.

Track record

Sample so far: 30 settled picks. Far too few to judge this model — treat every number below as a live scoreboard, not a verdict. The honest performance estimate is the backtest above (2,546 matches). A LOCK-tier claim alone needs ~30+ settled picks before it means anything.
16/30
frozen outcomes · n=30
53% — vs 33% coin-flip · 59.7% model long-run
59%
avg stated confidence
right 53% so far — too few picks (n=30) to read into the gap
3/5
lock picks
long-run ≥70% contract · needs ~30+ to judge
Known blind spot — draws: 10 of our 14 live misses were matches that ended level. The model almost never names a draw as its single most likely result (backtested draw recall 1.5%) — so a favourite that draws reads as a miss here. We are an outcome-leaning model, not a draw detector.
Exact scoreline nailed: 3/30 — for fun only. Even at its backtested best the model hits the precise score ~14% (always-1-1 baseline 10.1%): the hardest-possible metric, never a confidence signal.
RETRO (walk-forward, pre-system matches): outcomes 2/2 · exact 0/2 — counted separately, never in the headline numbers.
MatchPredActualTierOutExact (fun)
Mexico v South Africa 1-02-0STRONGretro✓✗
South Korea v Czech Republic 1-12-1TOSS-UPretro✓✗
Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-01-1STRONG✗✗
United States v Paraguay 1-04-1LEAN✓✗
Haiti v Scotland 0-10-1STRONG✓✓
Australia v Turkey 0-12-0LEAN✗✗
Brazil v Morocco 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
Qatar v Switzerland 0-21-1LOCK✗✗
Ivory Coast v Ecuador 0-01-0LEAN✗✗
Germany v Curaçao 3-07-1LOCK✓✗
Netherlands v Japan 1-12-2LEAN✗✗
Sweden v Tunisia 1-15-1TOSS-UP✓✗
Saudi Arabia v Uruguay 0-11-1STRONG✗✗
Spain v Cape Verde 2-00-0LOCK✗✗
Iran v New Zealand 1-02-2LEAN✗✗
Belgium v Egypt 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
France v Senegal 1-03-1STRONG✓✗
Iraq v Norway 0-11-4STRONG✓✗
Argentina v Algeria 1-03-0STRONG✓✗
Austria v Jordan 1-03-1STRONG✓✗
Ghana v Panama 1-01-0TOSS-UP✗✓
England v Croatia 1-04-2STRONG✓✗
Portugal v DR Congo 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
Uzbekistan v Colombia 0-11-3STRONG✓✗
Czech Republic v South Africa 1-01-1STRONG✗✗
Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-04-1STRONG✓✗
Canada v Qatar 2-06-0LOCK✓✗
Mexico v South Korea 1-01-0LEAN✓✓
Brazil v Haiti 2-03-0LOCK✓✗
Scotland v Morocco 1-10-1LEAN✓✗
Turkey v Paraguay 1-00-1TOSS-UP✗✗
United States v Australia 1-02-0LEAN✓✗

Upcoming · next 7 days

Jun 21 · 01:00 MYT · Group F LOCK
Netherlands
ELO 2014 ↓26
●●●●●
2–1
Netherlands win · 78%
Sweden
ELO 1826 →0
●●●●●
W 78%
13%
9%
1X · Netherlands or draw · 91%O2.5 60%1-0 14%2-0 13%3-1 9%3-0 8%
★ Joey Veerman · Georginio WijnaldumvsEmil Forsberg · Viktor Gyökeres
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 04:00 MYT · Group E STRONG
Germany
ELO 2021 ↑28
●●●●●
2–1
Germany win · 59%
Ivory Coast
ELO 1864 ↑153
●●●●●
W 59%
D 22%
L 19%
1X · Germany or draw · 81%O2.5 56%1-0 11%1-1 10%2-0 9%3-1 7%
★ Deniz Undav · Hany MukhtarvsYan Diomandé · Nicolas Pépé
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 08:00 MYT · Group E LOCK
Ecuador
ELO 1985 ↓8
●●●●●
2–0
Ecuador win · 83%
Curaçao
ELO 1597 →0
●●●●●
W 83%
12%
1X · Ecuador or draw · 95%O2.5 62%1-0 12%3-0 12%2-1 9%4-0 8%
★ Pedro Vite · Leonardo CampanavsBrandley Kuwas · Tyrese Noslin
● market-blended
Jun 21 · 12:00 MYT · Group F STRONG
Tunisia
ELO 1690 ↓44
●●●●●
0–1
Japan win · 60%
Japan
ELO 1999 ↑33
●●●●●
W 15%
D 25%
L 60%
X2 · Japan or draw · 85%U2.5 60%0-2 13%1-1 12%1-2 10%0-0 10%
★ Rani Khedira · Hannibal MejbrivsAyase Ueda · Kodai Sano
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 00:00 MYT · Group H LOCK
Spain
ELO 2196 ↓28
●●●●●
1–0
Spain win · 84%
Saudi Arabia
ELO 1716 →0
●●●●●
W 84%
11%
1X · Spain or draw · 95%U2.5 52%2-0 19%3-0 13%2-1 9%4-0 6%
★ Lamine Yamal · Pep BielvsKhalid Al Ghannam · Musab Al Juwayr
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 03:00 MYT · Group G STRONG
Belgium
ELO 1950 ↑40
●●●●●
1–0
Belgium win · 63%
Iran
ELO 1887 ↓15
●●●●●
W 63%
D 22%
L 15%
1X · Belgium or draw · 85%O2.5 54%2-1 12%2-0 11%1-1 10%3-1 7%
★ Mika Godts · Yannick Carrascovs
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 06:00 MYT · Group H STRONG
Uruguay
ELO 1959 ↓26
●●●●●
1–0
Uruguay win · 66%
Cape Verde
ELO 1684 ↑48
●●●●●
W 66%
D 24%
11%
1X · Uruguay or draw · 89%U2.5 59%2-0 15%0-0 10%1-1 10%3-0 9%
★ Giorgian De Arrascaeta · Luis SuárezvsSidny Lopes Cabral · Jovane Cabral
● market-blended
Jun 22 · 09:00 MYT · Group G LEAN
New Zealand
ELO 1748 ↓64
●●●●●
0–1
Egypt win · 54%
Egypt
ELO 1825 ↑45
●●●●●
W 21%
D 25%
L 54%
X2 · Egypt or draw · 79%U2.5 55%1-1 12%1-2 11%0-2 10%0-0 8%
★ Chris Wood · Michael BoxallvsMohamed Salah · Mostafa Mohamed
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 01:00 MYT · Group J STRONG
Argentina
ELO 2209 →0
●●●●●
1–0
Argentina win · 63%
Austria
ELO 1926 ↑20
●●●●●
W 63%
D 23%
L 14%
1X · Argentina or draw · 86%U2.5 53%2-0 13%1-1 11%2-1 9%3-0 8%
★ Lionel Messi · Ángel CorreavsChristoph Baumgartner · Hannes Wolf
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 05:00 MYT · Group I LOCK
France
ELO 2150 ↑30
●●●●●
2–0
France win · 85%
Iraq
ELO 1720 ↑32
●●●●●
W 85%
10%
1X · France or draw · 95%O2.5 60%1-0 14%3-0 12%2-1 9%4-0 8%
★ Michael Olise · Esteban LepaulvsAli Jasim · Ahmed Qasem
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 08:00 MYT · Group I TOSS-UP
Norway
ELO 1998 ↑76
●●●●●
1–1
Norway win · 40%
Senegal
ELO 1896 →0
●●●●●
W 40%
D 28%
L 32%
12 · Norway or Senegal (no draw) · 72%U2.5 56%1-0 12%0-1 9%0-0 9%2-1 9%
★ Erling Haaland · Joshua KingvsSadio Mané · Issa Soumaré
● market-blended
Jun 23 · 11:00 MYT · Group J STRONG
Jordan
ELO 1748 →0
●●●●●
0–1
Algeria win · 59%
Algeria
ELO 1872 ↑57
●●●●●
W 16%
D 25%
L 59%
X2 · Algeria or draw · 84%U2.5 52%1-1 12%0-2 11%1-2 10%0-0 8%
★ Musa Al-TaamarivsAnis Hadj Moussa · Saïd Benrahma
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 01:00 MYT · Group K LOCK
Portugal
ELO 2031 ↓55
●●●●●
1–0
Portugal win · 76%
Uzbekistan
ELO 1806 ↓22
●●●●●
W 76%
D 16%
8%
1X · Portugal or draw · 92%O2.5 54%2-0 14%2-1 11%3-0 10%1-1 7%
★ João Félix · Bruno FernandesvsAbdukodir Khusanov
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 04:00 MYT · Group L LOCK
England
ELO 2125 ↑73
●●●●●
2–0
England win · 78%
Ghana
ELO 1675 ↑75
●●●●●
W 78%
D 15%
1X · England or draw · 93%U2.5 51%1-0 17%3-0 12%2-1 9%1-1 6%
★ Harry Kane · Ivan ToneyvsAntoine Semenyo · Christopher Bonsu-Baah
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 07:00 MYT · Group L STRONG
Panama
ELO 1810 ↓66
●●●●●
1–1
Croatia win · 61%
Croatia
ELO 1944 ↓43
●●●●●
W 15%
D 24%
L 61%
X2 · Croatia or draw · 85%O2.5 55%0-1 11%1-2 10%0-2 10%1-3 7%
★ Ismael Díaz · José Luis RodríguezvsPetar Musa · Ivan Perišić
● market-blended
Jun 24 · 10:00 MYT · Group K STRONG
Colombia
ELO 2086 ↑54
●●●●●
1–0
Colombia win · 63%
DR Congo
ELO 1786 ↑85
●●●●●
W 63%
D 24%
13%
1X · Colombia or draw · 87%U2.5 60%2-0 14%1-1 11%0-0 10%2-1 9%
★ Luis Suárez · Luis DíazvsAaron Wan-Bissaka · Noah Sadiki
● market-blended
Jun 25 · 03:00 MYT · Group B TOSS-UP
Canada
ELO 1892 ↓7
●●●●●
1–1
Canada win · 40%
Switzerland
ELO 1956 ↑41
●●●●●
W 40%
D 28%
L 32%
12 · Canada or Switzerland (no draw) · 72%U2.5 54%1-0 10%0-1 10%0-0 8%2-1 8%
★ Tani Oluwaseyi · Jonathan DavidvsBreel Embolo · Johan Manzambi
Jun 25 · 03:00 MYT · Group B STRONG
Bosnia and Herzegovina
ELO 1660 ↑79
●●●●●
1–0
Bosnia and Herzegovina win · 59%
Qatar
ELO 1581 ↓69
●●●●●
W 59%
D 21%
L 20%
1X · Bosnia and Herzegovina or draw · 80%O2.5 53%2-1 12%1-1 10%2-0 10%3-1 6%
★ Haris Tabaković · Ermedin Demirovićvs
● market-blended
Jun 25 · 06:00 MYT · Group C STRONG
Scotland
ELO 1848 ↑71
●●●●●
0–1
Brazil win · 67%
Brazil
ELO 2077 →0
●●●●●
12%
D 20%
L 67%
X2 · Brazil or draw · 88%U2.5 53%0-2 14%1-2 10%1-1 9%0-3 9%
★ Scott McTominay · John McGinnvsEvander · Kaio Jorge
● market-blended
Jun 25 · 06:00 MYT · Group C LOCK
Morocco
ELO 2015 ↑102
●●●●●
2–0
Morocco win · 79%
Haiti
ELO 1681 ↑44
●●●●●
W 79%
D 14%
1X · Morocco or draw · 93%O2.5 52%1-0 15%3-0 12%2-1 8%4-0 7%
★ Ismael Saibari · Abde EzzalzoulivsDanley Jean-Jacques · Wilson Isidor
● market-blended
Jun 25 · 09:00 MYT · Group A LOCK
Mexico
ELO 2007 ↑80
●●●●●
2–0
Mexico win · 75%
Czech Republic
ELO 1773 ↓36
●●●●●
W 75%
D 15%
10%
1X · Mexico or draw · 90%O2.5 55%1-0 14%2-1 10%3-0 10%3-1 7%
★ Julián Quiñones · Armando GonzálezvsPatrik Schick · Pavel Šulc
Jun 25 · 09:00 MYT · Group A STRONG
South Africa
ELO 1668 ↓10
●●●●●
0–1
South Korea win · 59%
South Korea
ELO 1892 →0
●●●●●
W 16%
D 25%
L 59%
X2 · South Korea or draw · 84%U2.5 59%0-2 12%1-1 11%0-0 10%1-2 9%
★ Lyle Foster · Bongokuhle HlongwanevsLee Hyunju · Lee Kang-in
● market-blended
Jun 26 · 04:00 MYT · Group E LOCK
Curaçao
ELO 1597 ↑13
●●●●●
0–1
Ivory Coast win · 77%
Ivory Coast
ELO 1864 ↑153
●●●●●
7%
D 16%
L 77%
X2 · Ivory Coast or draw · 93%U2.5 55%0-2 17%1-2 11%0-3 9%1-1 7%
★ Brandley Kuwas · Tyrese NoslinvsYan Diomandé · Nicolas Pépé
● market-blended
Jun 26 · 04:00 MYT · Group E LEAN
Ecuador
ELO 1985 ↓8
●●●●●
0–1
Germany win · 50%
Germany
ELO 2021 ↑28
●●●●●
W 23%
D 26%
L 50%
X2 · Germany or draw · 77%U2.5 60%1-1 12%1-2 10%0-2 10%0-0 10%
★ Pedro Vite · Leonardo CampanavsDeniz Undav · Hany Mukhtar
● market-blended
Jun 26 · 07:00 MYT · Group F LEAN
Japan
ELO 1999 ↑33
●●●●●
1–1
Japan win · 49%
Sweden
ELO 1826 →0
●●●●●
W 49%
D 27%
L 24%
1X · Japan or draw · 76%U2.5 51%1-0 10%2-0 9%0-0 8%2-1 8%
★ Ayase Ueda · Kodai SanovsEmil Forsberg · Viktor Gyökeres
● market-blended
Jun 26 · 07:00 MYT · Group F STRONG
Tunisia
ELO 1690 ↓44
●●●●●
0–1
Netherlands win · 67%
Netherlands
ELO 2014 ↓26
●●●●●
12%
D 21%
L 67%
X2 · Netherlands or draw · 88%U2.5 59%0-2 14%1-2 11%1-1 9%0-0 9%
★ Rani Khedira · Hannibal MejbrivsJoey Veerman · Georginio Wijnaldum
● market-blended
Jun 26 · 10:00 MYT · Group D STRONG
United States
ELO 1924 ↑89
●●●●●
1–1
United States win · 58%
Turkey
ELO 1886 ↓12
●●●●●
W 58%
D 26%
L 16%
1X · United States or draw · 84%O2.5 58%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 9%3-1 7%
★ Djordje Mihailovic · Milan IloskivsKenan Yıldız · Basar Onal
Jun 26 · 10:00 MYT · Group D TOSS-UP
Paraguay
ELO 1906 →0
●●●●●
1–1
draw most likely · 38%
Australia
ELO 1917 ↑25
●●●●●
W 32%
D 38%
L 30%
1X · Paraguay or draw · 70%U2.5 66%0-0 15%1-0 12%0-1 10%2-1 7%
★ Robert Morales · Diego GonzálezvsJordy Bos · Ajdin Hrustic
model rarely calls draws — see track record
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 03:00 MYT · Group I STRONG
Senegal
ELO 1896 →0
●●●●●
1–0
Senegal win · 69%
Iraq
ELO 1720 ↑32
●●●●●
W 69%
D 21%
10%
1X · Senegal or draw · 90%U2.5 56%2-0 15%2-1 9%1-1 9%3-0 9%
★ Sadio Mané · Issa SoumarévsAli Jasim · Ahmed Qasem
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 03:00 MYT · Group I STRONG
Norway
ELO 1998 ↑76
●●●●●
1–1
France win · 55%
France
ELO 2150 ↑30
●●●●●
W 19%
D 25%
L 55%
X2 · France or draw · 81%O2.5 53%0-1 10%0-2 10%1-2 9%0-0 7%
★ Erling Haaland · Joshua KingvsMichael Olise · Esteban Lepaul
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 08:00 MYT · Group H TOSS-UP
Cape Verde
ELO 1684 ↑48
●●●●●
0–1
Saudi Arabia win · 38%
Saudi Arabia
ELO 1716 ↑6
●●●●●
W 34%
D 28%
L 38%
12 · Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia (no draw) · 72%U2.5 66%1-0 13%1-1 12%0-0 12%0-2 8%
★ Sidny Lopes Cabral · Jovane CabralvsKhalid Al Ghannam · Musab Al Juwayr
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 08:00 MYT · Group H STRONG
Uruguay
ELO 1959 ↓26
●●●●●
0–1
Spain win · 59%
Spain
ELO 2196 ↓28
●●●●●
W 16%
D 25%
L 59%
X2 · Spain or draw · 84%U2.5 67%0-2 13%0-0 12%1-1 10%1-2 9%
★ Giorgian De Arrascaeta · Luis SuárezvsLamine Yamal · Pep Biel
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 11:00 MYT · Group G TOSS-UP
Egypt
ELO 1825 ↑45
●●●●●
1–0
Egypt win · 40%
Iran
ELO 1887 ↓15
●●●●●
W 40%
D 31%
L 28%
1X · Egypt or draw · 72%U2.5 69%0-0 14%1-1 14%0-1 11%2-1 8%
★ Mohamed Salah · Mostafa Mohamedvs
● market-blended
Jun 27 · 11:00 MYT · Group G LOCK
New Zealand
ELO 1748 ↓64
●●●●●
0–1
Belgium win · 73%
Belgium
ELO 1950 ↑40
●●●●●
9%
D 18%
L 73%
X2 · Belgium or draw · 91%O2.5 55%0-2 13%1-2 12%1-1 9%0-3 8%
★ Chris Wood · Michael BoxallvsMika Godts · Yannick Carrasco
● market-blended

Groups · advance odds

Group A

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Mexico200+36 100%
South Korea101+03 94%
Czech Republic011-11 11%
South Africa011-21 16%

Group B

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Canada110+64 100%
Switzerland110+34 100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina011-31 59%
Qatar011-61 19%

Group C

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Brazil110+34 100%
Morocco110+14 100%
Scotland101+03 73%
Haiti002-40 1%

Group D

teamWDLGDpts·adv
United States200+56 100%
Australia101+03 91%
Paraguay101-23 80%
Turkey002-30 5%

Group E

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Germany100+63 100%
Ivory Coast100+13 98%
Ecuador001-10 81%
Curaçao001-60 3%

Group F

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Sweden100+43 94%
Netherlands010+01 96%
Japan010+01 87%
Tunisia001-40 10%

Group G

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Iran010+01 47%
New Zealand010+01 34%
Egypt010+01 80%
Belgium010+01 93%

Group H

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Uruguay010+01 77%
Saudi Arabia010+01 44%
Cape Verde010+01 47%
Spain010+01 96%

Group I

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Norway100+33 97%
France100+23 100%
Senegal001-20 71%
Iraq001-30 5%

Group J

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Argentina100+33 100%
Austria100+23 94%
Jordan001-20 10%
Algeria001-30 58%

Group K

teamWDLGDpts·adv
Colombia100+23 99%
Portugal010+01 90%
DR Congo010+01 57%
Uzbekistan001-20 21%

Group L

teamWDLGDpts·adv
England100+23 100%
Ghana100+13 72%
Panama001-10 13%
Croatia001-20 79%

Champion odds · 10,000 simulations

Argentina
27.0%
Spain
13.4%
England
8.2%
Colombia
8.1%
Brazil
7.7%
France
7.6%
Portugal
3.6%
Morocco
3.6%
Germany
2.7%
Belgium
2.6%
Japan
2.4%
Netherlands
2.1%